Tusker Fc, are currently at position 6 on the Kenya Premier League table. The team has played 7 matches so far, winning only 2 drawing 3 and losing 2. Last week, a Tisini analysis on Tusker’s 12 goals showed that the team is highly reliant on set plays. Guaranteed, they are very effective in dead balls, which have contributed 8 of their 12 goals so far.

Nevertheless, all doesn’t seem to be well with Tusker. After finishing second last season, veteran Robert Matano left and his understudy, Charles Okere became head coach on an interim basis. However, a look into data collected by Tisini suggests that Tusker may just be lacking tactical control in matches.

Tusker’s Low Pass Accuracy and Low Possession

In the 7 games played, the Brewers have only had the bulk of the possession twice. This was in the opening game against Sofapaka and the recent match against KCB. What appears to ail them is the inability to string together accurate passes. The team mates are simply not connecting enough for a top side. 

I believe a top team should average over 80% pass completion accuracy with over 90% reserved for teams that are highly possessive of the ball.

So even if Tusker’s approach is to cede possession, play on transition and rely on set pieces they need to pass better. In total, the team has attempted 1160 passes so far this season, with a pass completion accuracy that is currently at 71.47%. For comparison, table topping KCB has an 80.4% pass completion accuracy.

Its only in the matches against Sofapaka (62%) and Ulinzi (77%) did the Brewers have a higher pass completion accuracy than the opponent.

Based on the possession stats, Tusker appears like a side that wants to play in transition. That means, they are highly reliant on progressive passes, a forward pass that attempts to advance the ball significantly closer to the opponent’s goal. 

So far, Tusker has attempted 62 progressive passes, with 41.9 % accuracy. Given the nature of progressive passes, which tend to be long, accuracy is expected to be lower. Nevertheless, when compared to KCB, who have attempted 56 passes with a 52.6% completion rate, Tusker again appears to be underperforming in terms of  accuracy.

Their crosses aren’t fairing any better, Tusker has attempted 89 crosses completing only 14 of them. This low passing accuracy means the team has little control of the ball.

The Pressure on Tusker’s Defence

What effect this lack of possession and control has is that it invites pressure on the team. The team is mostly sitting back and works hard defensively in their own half, rarely pressing high up the pitch. Tusker has made 62 interceptions on their own half compared to only 8 in the opposition half. 

Inviting defensive pressure has meant that the team has only kept one clean sheet in the matches played. In a recent press interview coach Okere acknowledged the pressure saying, “We are not resilient, because every game has pressure. So, if you cannot resist the pressure, you will concede.”

Excessive pressure can induce defensive errors, as evidenced by Tusker's capitulation in game weeks 2 and 3, where a two-goal advantage was squandered. In game week 2, Kariobangi Sharks, known for their possession-based style, capitalized on Tusker's defensive lapses, scoring three second-half goals, including a late injury-time strike. 

In this game, Sharks attempted 427 passes, 301 more than Tusker. This shows which team was in total control and which team was under pressure. Despite Tusker winning 8 tackles in this game, the most for them this season, they still conceded 3 goals.

In Kakamega Homeboyz’s comeback for a draw, they had 82% pass accuracy compared to Tusker’s 72%.

Lessons from the KCB Match

Tusker tends to score most goals in the first half, 9 out of the 12 so far. 6 of these goals have come in the first 30 mins of the match. Prior to the KCB match, 6 of the 8 goals conceded were from the 40^th minute. KCB changed this by scoring in the 5^th and 12^th minute.

Coach Charles Okere stated, “It was surprise to us, we did not expect that because we had worked on that throughout the week”

This prompted a reaction from the brewers. It is in this game that Tusker attempted the most passes this season with 341, completing 277 for an accuracy of 81.2%. Its also the game they have had the most box touches 21.

10 of these box touches came from the 60^th minute with 6 in the final 15 minutes. This shows that Tusker had decided to apply pressure to try and come back after conceding very early.

As mentioned early, this is only the second game they have had more possession than the opponent. Its also the match, they have had most shots this season, 18, with 6 from in the box and 12 from out of the box.

Game state dictated that Tusker had to change approach resulting in one of their best attacking metrics of the season. The numbers were second or better to those against Sofapaka. At the time Tusker met Sofapaka, the opponent could even name a full match day squad due to a ban on player registration.

But in Game week 7, they played better with the ball against the league’s current best side. In the end, they did not have an open play goal but won and scored their first penalty this season. This is no surprises given the high number of box touches.  Also, Tusker managed to score twice against a team that had previously only conceded one goal in 6 matches.

This means, Tusker can and should play more with the ball at their feet. Given they have a working formula for goals, adopting a possession-based approach may minimize the current defensive stress.