It is the Kenya Cup final, and also the 'RAI Derby' this year, for the name used to indicate the corporate sponsorship of the two teams: Rai Group.

The final pits the reigning champions, Kabras Sugar RFC, against the formidable challengers, Menengai Oilers RFC. This is a history and dominance clash in which Kabras' rule can be extended or a significant pattern break with the coming of a new era in Kenyan rugby.

History of Periodic Dominance

The Kenya Cup has historically seen periods of extended dominance by a select few teams. From the 1970s through the 1990s, Nondescripts RFC held a notable winning streak. Subsequently, the early 2000s saw Kenya Harlequin FC and Impala RFC emerge as the leading forces. 

The landscape shifted from traditional clubs like Nondescripts, Mean Machine, and Kenya Harlequin, which were prominent until the mid-1990s, to Impala in the 2000s.

In the 2010s, a new force was made in KCB. The 2020s have so far belonged to Kabras Sugar RFC, who have achieved a remarkable three-peat, winning the Kenya Cup in 2021/22, 2022/23, and 2023/24, making them the leading force in the competition.

Potential Pattern Breaks in the Past

Data indicates that historically, a previously dominant team has a stronger likelihood of reclaiming its position than a newly rising team when an established power is overthrown. 

However, there are notable deviations from this trend. For example, Nondescripts RFC, after decades of dominance, was dethroned by Kenya Harlequin and Impala RFC around 1999, marking the end of an era and the rise of new contenders. 

Similarly, KCB RFC interrupted the Impala and Harlequins era starting in 2005, establishing itself as a new powerhouse. Later, Kabras Sugar challenged KCB's dominance in 2015/16, becoming a significant force and eventually the current dominant team. The question now is whether Kabras' reign will also see a pattern break in 2024.

Can their dominance be broken at the Forest, and will we witness yet another change of guard, a pattern familiar to the Kenyan Cup?

Why Menengai Oilers Could Break the Pattern

In recent seasons, Menengai Oilers RFC has proven to be a real contender. Kabras Sugar beat them to the crown in 2021/22. Undoubtedly, that experience has only fanned their desire to make it even further than they did last season. This team is back now and is taking scalps of foes. Oilers have just come from beating KCB rugby to stop the Bankers from making yet another final. A KCB versus Kabras showdown had become a pattern.

The Oilers have been slowly building a great team, a mix of youth and experience. However, their squad depth has not improved enough to match Kabras Sugar in critical areas. Kabras dominate forward play and Menegai must adjust most of their strategies to counter it. 

Oilers possess a distinct, adaptable playing style, setting them apart from Kabras. This versatility, particularly their fast attack and robust defense, could pose a unique challenge that Kabras has yet to face. In addition, the Nakuru side is hungry to win the Kenya Cup title for the first time in their history. The extra motivation may be the difference in the final. They had some practice of winning at Floodiez and now want the big one.

Kabras has superior experience in handling pressure situations because they have won multiple finals in recent years. The team has one of the best-balanced teams in Kenyan rugby, with excellent coaching and structure. Further, the Kakamega Showgrounds has become an impenetrable home ground for Kabras Sugar, who have won the last two tournaments played there, giving them a considerable home field advantage.

Additionally, the Oilers were pipped by Kabras narrowly in the regular season Kenya Cup group stage match. The Nakuru side know what the defending champions are capable of. 

With a new challenge, can Kabras maintain their dominance and prove their title defense is unwavering, regardless of who stands before them?

Statistically, Who Has the Edge?

When it comes to identifying who holds the edge ahead of the Kenya Cup final, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Kabras Sugar dominate in the attacking department. They boast more average visits to the opponent’s 22-meter area, higher carries in that zone, superior lineout success, and better goal-kicking accuracy—key indicators of an effective and clinical offensive unit.

On the other hand, Menengai Oilers show their strength in defensive discipline. They edge Kabras in tackle completion rate, commit fewer handling errors, and concede fewer penalties on average. These attributes reflect a well-organized and disciplined side that can frustrate opponents and capitalize on mistakes.

In essence, while Kabras bring the firepower, Oilers may rely on structure and composure to turn the tide.

Will History Repeat or Be Rewritten?

However, with history in mind, Kabras is at risk of a pattern break, and the question is whether Menengai Oilers can rise to the occasion and pull off an upset. Kabras’s winning, however, will strengthen its dominance as KCB did in the late 2010s.

An Oilers victory, however, would dramatically shift the Kenya Cup's balance of power. The question remains: will Kabras further cement their legacy, or will Menengai Oilers forge their own? Only time will reveal the outcome, but the Kenya Cup final promises to be a historic clash!