The Kenyan Premier League is heated this year as it enters the last 11 matches. The top five teams are closely matched, with only a 7-point difference separating league leaders Police FC and AFC Leopards in fifth place. As it is, Police FC seems to be collecting the highest average points per game with 1.82. However, Tusker FC and Gor Mahia are not far away with 1.78 pts and 1.77 pts, respectively.

 A look at the form table across the last five matches shows Gor Mahia has had a spike in good form while Tusker has plateaued.

Analyzing season-long metrics, Tisini forecasts a closely contested finish. Their Recent Form Factor (RFF) highlights Police FC, Kakamega Homeboyz, and Gor Mahia as the teams with current momentum.

However, after a strong 7-game unbeaten run, Kakamega suffered a setback as Shabana took advantage of individual mistakes to score four times.

In the KPL, if teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, the score difference will be the tiebreaker. Police FC and Gor Mahia have the highest goal differences, suggesting strong offensive and defensive capabilities. Tusker FC also has a solid goal difference, reinforcing their top standing.

Home and Away Strengths

Police FC and Tusker FC have strong home performances, earning significantly more points at home. Police have been averaging 2.176 points in their home games, while Gor Mahia demonstrates a consistent, balanced performance, achieving strong results both at home and on the road.

In contrast, AFC Leopards exhibit a significant disparity, performing considerably better in away matches than in their home fixtures.

The trend is projected to change slightly for the remaining fixtures. Gor Mahia is expected to show a much stronger home advantage. K’Ogalo taking more points at home in the remaining fixtures is slightly due to having played one home fixture less than Tusker and Police.

Shabana, who have made the Gusii stadium a fortress, are also projected to take more points at home.

Ulinzi are the outliers in the predicted top 10 and may gain the same points in home and away fixtures.

Tisini's projections indicate Gor Mahia is expected to secure 13.08 points at home and 8.29 points away. Police FC is predicted to earn 10.88 home points and 9.71 away points.

Tusker FC's home projection of 10.28 points is close to Police FC's, but they are expected to struggle away, garnering only 8.60 points.

Police FC to Win KPL

As discussed earlier, Police FC is averaging more points than their close rivals in the games played. The team is projected to just edge its rival in terms of points in the remainder of the season. Hence, KPL is expected to have a new winner. 

Police FC is expected to finish first with a projected 64 points, which may be the team’s first title. It will be followed closely by Gor Mahia (62) and Tusker FC (61). 

This would be a drop from K'ogalo's 73 point last season or 70 in the previous one. Notably, 64 points would mean Police match their point in the 22/23 seaon, where they finished third.

Teams to Be Relegated

The battle to avoid the drop is even closer than at the top. Tisini projects 5 teams may be involved in the fight. Kariobangi Sharks, whose owner lost the FKF election, might also lose their place in KPL. Murang’a’ Seal, is also in the red zone.

Going by the projections, Bidco United and Talanta FC may face the chop while Nairobi City Stars gets to go to the playoffs.

Take note, in the end football is played on the pitch and not in numbers. Let's all wait and see how KPL pans out and if the league gets a new champion.